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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 20, as Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.28 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.85 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.15 / defence 0.67 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.95 / defence 0.81, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 46% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 24%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 57%, Djurgardens IF 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mjallby AIF's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Djurgardens IF's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.96 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights