🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF meet at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 August 2025 at 15:30 UTC.

Current Form

Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 8W 2D 0L at Strandvallen — 2.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen.

Djurgardens IF have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Djurgardens IF's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Mjallby AIF's favour (2.60 vs 1.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Mjallby AIF, 4 for Djurgardens IF and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 9 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2025, ended 3–1 with Mjallby AIF winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 67% versus Djurgardens IF 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 57% | Djurgardens IF 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.28 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.148 / defence 0.665 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.952 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.340. Mjallby AIF's defence rating of 0.665 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Mjallby AIF games / 49 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 46% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 24%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Djurgardens IF 4.17. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 50% | Djurgardens IF 20% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights