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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Mjallby AIF run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Degerfors IF.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mjallby AIF beat Degerfors IF 4-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 2.08 xG and Degerfors IF 1.66 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Mjallby AIF beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.20 / defence 0.94 against Degerfors IF attack 1.38 / defence 1.24, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 48% | Draw 21% | Degerfors IF 31%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 57%, Degerfors IF 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mjallby AIF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights