Kalmar FF 2-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Kalmar FF versus Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 25 July 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Kalmar FF (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kalmar FF have posted 6W 2D 2L at — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Kalmar FF are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Mjallby AIF have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Kalmar FF against 1.40 for Mjallby AIF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 9 meetings, Mjallby AIF have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Kalmar FF's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 0–3 with Mjallby AIF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Mjallby AIF have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 44% versus Mjallby AIF 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 46% | Mjallby AIF 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.58 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.950 / defence 0.997 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.305 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.675 / away 1.351. Mjallby AIF have an above-average attack strength of 1.305 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Kalmar FF games / 43 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 33% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 41%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Mjallby AIF 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.34 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 70% | Mjallby AIF 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jul 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 33% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Kalmar FF 1.58 / Mjallby AIF 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.950 / def 0.997 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.305 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.675 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Mjallby AIF xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 25 July 2026.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Kalmar FF 2 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 33% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF?
Record (9 meetings): Kalmar FF 1W | Draws 2 | Mjallby AIF 6W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kalmar FF's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (1.30x) against Kalmar FF's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
33%
3.01
26%
3.83
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
3.34
1.76
Mjallby AIF xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
17%
5.80
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
6%
17.47
8%
11.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.76 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kalmar FF's recent record stands at 22W 12D 9L from 43 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjallby AIF, meanwhile, have gone 27W 11D 5L across 43 games — 2.14 PPG, with D-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.81 PPG for Kalmar FF against 2.14 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kalmar FF have managed 16W 3D 3L from 22 games — 2.32 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.81 PPG overall — Kalmar FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mjallby AIF's away record stands at 14W 6D 2L across 22 trips, a 2.18 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.77 scored and 0.81 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Mjallby AIF in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 22W 12D 9L in their last 43 games (1.81 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 27W 11D 5L in their last 43 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Kalmar FF's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 2.32 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 2.18 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 4-0 on 17 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 2W 0D 4L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kalmar FF
2
Draws
6
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 2, Mjallby AIF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-1 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 50%, Mjallby AIF 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Kalmar FF) and 59% (Mjallby AIF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 59% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Kalmar FF's matches and 59% of Mjallby AIF's.
Do Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kalmar FF defy the odds to beat Mjallby AIF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat Mjallby AIF 2-1 at , Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.58 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.76 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.95 / defence 1.00 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.30 / defence 0.99, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 33% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 41%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Kalmar FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 46%, Mjallby AIF 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.81 PPG, Mjallby AIF 2.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.