Kalmar FF 0-1 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Gais (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kalmar FF face Gais.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus Gais in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Thursday 29 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kalmar FF have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF at Guldfågeln Arena this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Kalmar FF are significantly better at Guldfågeln Arena than their overall form suggests.
Gais (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Gais arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Kalmar FF, 2 for Gais and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2026, ended 0–3 with Gais winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Kalmar FF — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Gais — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 42% versus Gais 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 47% | Gais 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.08 xG and Gais 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.696 / defence 1.426 | Gais attack 0.929 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.342. Kalmar FF's attack strength of 0.696 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Kalmar FF games / 55 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 22% | Draw 24% | Gais 53%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Gais 1.89. Gais hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gais as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gais if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Kalmar FF 40% | Gais 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Gais | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 22% | Draw 24% | Gais 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Kalmar FF 1.08 / Gais 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.696 / def 1.426 | Gais attack 0.929 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Gais (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Gais xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Gais kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Gais kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 29 October 2026 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Gais?
Kalmar FF 0 - 1 Gais.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Gais part of?
Kalmar FF vs Gais is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 22% chance of winning, Gais a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Kalmar FF and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Gais?
Record (3 meetings): Kalmar FF 0W | Draws 1 | Gais 2W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Gais in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Gais (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kalmar FF's attack rating (0.70) and Gais's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gais's attack (0.93x) against Kalmar FF's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 25/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
22%
4.45
24%
4.13
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.86
1.78
Gais xG
4.45
22%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
17%
5.92
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
4%
26.33
18%
5.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 10.2 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.78 for Gais, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, Kalmar FF have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 24W 14D 17L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gais's form line: 22W 17D 16L from 55 games, 1.51 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Kalmar FF against 1.51 for Gais. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Kalmar FF have posted 2.00 PPG from 27 outings (17W 3D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — Kalmar FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Gais have gone 9W 8D 10L from 27 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.38 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Gais in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 24W 14D 17L in their last 55 games (1.56 PPG), while Gais have gone 22W 17D 16L in their last 55 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Gais away?
Kalmar FF's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 2.00 PPG; Gais away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Gais in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 29 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Gais go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gais won 3-0 on 30 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Gais — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Kalmar FF
1
Draws
3
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Gais?
From 4 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 0, Gais have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 29 October 2026, when Kalmar FF 0-1 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 44%, Gais 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Kalmar FF) and 52% (Gais). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 56% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Kalmar FF's matches and 52% of Gais's.
Do Kalmar FF and Gais tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Gais in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gais edge out Kalmar FF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Kalmar FF 0-1 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.08 xG and Gais 1.78 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kalmar FF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.70 / defence 1.43 against Gais attack 0.93 / defence 1.12, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 22% | Draw 24% | Gais 53%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 47%, Gais 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gais's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.56 PPG, Gais 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gais win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Gais (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.