IFK Varnamo 0-0 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees IF Elfsborg travel to Finnvedsvallen to take on IFK Varnamo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 June 2025, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Varnamo stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Varnamo have posted 3W 3D 4L at Finnvedsvallen — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IFK Varnamo 1.50 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for IFK Varnamo, 2 for IF Elfsborg and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
IFK Varnamo in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
IF Elfsborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 47% versus IF Elfsborg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 45% | IF Elfsborg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.06 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.863 / defence 1.173 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.039 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.318. Data: 42 IFK Varnamo games / 42 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 25% | Draw 25% | IF Elfsborg 50%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | IF Elfsborg 2.00. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: IFK Varnamo 40% | IF Elfsborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jun 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 25% | Draw 25% | IF Elfsborg 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.06 / IF Elfsborg 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.863 / def 1.173 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.039 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.61
IF Elfsborg xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 29 June 2025 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg?
IFK Varnamo 0 - 0 IF Elfsborg.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg part of?
IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 25% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg?
Record (6 meetings): IFK Varnamo 1W | Draws 3 | IF Elfsborg 2W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from IFK Varnamo's attack rating (0.86) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
25%
3.98
25%
4.02
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.67
1.61
IF Elfsborg xG
3.98
25%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
5%
19.85
17%
5.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 11.1 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.61 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Varnamo come into this having played 60 games, going 21W 14D 25L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, IF Elfsborg sit at 1.82 PPG from 60 outings (33W 10D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five.
IF Elfsborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of IFK Varnamo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
IFK Varnamo's home form reads 9W 6D 15L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Elfsborg have taken 1.53 points per game from 30 outings (14W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.85 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 games (1.28 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 33W 10D 17L in their last 60 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 1.10 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.53 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 August 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Apr 2022, when IF Elfsborg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
IFK Varnamo
5
Draws
2
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 1, IF Elfsborg have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 11 August 2025, when IF Elfsborg 2-2 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 43%, IF Elfsborg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (IFK Varnamo) and 60% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo have failed to score in 37% of games; IF Elfsborg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 50% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 60% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at IFK Varnamo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 13, as IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.06 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.61 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. IFK Varnamo fell 1.1 short of their projected output. IF Elfsborg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.86 / defence 1.17 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.04 / defence 0.91, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 25% | Draw 25% | IF Elfsborg 50%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 45%, IF Elfsborg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.