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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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IFK Goteborg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over IFK Norrkoping.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IFK Goteborg beat IFK Norrkoping 2-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 30, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.49 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.18 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.84 / defence 0.90 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.93 / defence 1.22, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 42% | Draw 30% | IFK Norrkoping 28%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 44%, IFK Norrkoping 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Goteborg's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.34 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights