🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours IFK Goteborg (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as IFK Goteborg face IFK Norrkoping.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Gamla Ullevi plays host to IFK Goteborg versus IFK Norrkoping in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Sunday 9 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

IFK Goteborg (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

IFK Goteborg's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

IFK Norrkoping's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Norrkoping have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward IFK Goteborg. A 0.70 PPG lead over IFK Norrkoping (1.70 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

Across 9 previous meetings, IFK Goteborg are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 2, with 2 draws in between.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2025, ended 3–2 with IFK Goteborg winning.

The historical record gives IFK Goteborg a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

IFK Goteborg — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).

IFK Norrkoping — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 48% versus IFK Norrkoping 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 44% | IFK Norrkoping 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.49 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.841 / defence 0.903 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.932 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.408. IFK Norrkoping bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing IFK Goteborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 IFK Goteborg games / 59 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 42% | Draw 30% | IFK Norrkoping 28%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | IFK Norrkoping 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IFK Goteborg 40% | IFK Norrkoping 80% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights