IFK Goteborg 1-2 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 26 as IFK Goteborg welcome Hammarby FF to Gamla Ullevi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 October 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gamla Ullevi this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Hammarby FF have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
IFK Goteborg carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Hammarby FF have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for IFK Goteborg.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2025, ended 0–4 with Hammarby FF winning.
It is worth noting that Hammarby FF have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 49% versus Hammarby FF 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 44% | Hammarby FF 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.35 xG and Hammarby FF 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.888 / defence 0.826 | Hammarby FF attack 1.097 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.324. Data: 55 IFK Goteborg games / 55 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 40% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 33%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Hammarby FF 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Hammarby FF lead the H2H ledger, but IFK Goteborg carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IFK Goteborg 50% | Hammarby FF 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Oct 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 40% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.35 / Hammarby FF 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.888 / def 0.826 | Hammarby FF attack 1.097 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Hammarby FF xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 5 October 2025 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 2 Hammarby FF.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 40% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF?
Record (8 meetings): IFK Goteborg 1W | Draws 2 | Hammarby FF 5W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Hammarby FF's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
40%
2.48
27%
3.76
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.55
1.20
Hammarby FF xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
9%
11.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.20 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, IFK Goteborg have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 21W 12D 22L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF's form line: 31W 10D 14L from 55 games, 1.87 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hammarby FF are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IFK Goteborg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IFK Goteborg have posted 1.26 PPG from 27 outings (9W 7D 11L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 12W 5D 10L from 27 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.76 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 21W 12D 22L in their last 55 games (1.36 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 31W 10D 14L in their last 55 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Hammarby FF away?
Hammarby FF's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.26 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.52 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hammarby FF have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2025, when Hammarby FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
IFK Goteborg
2
Draws
7
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 1, Hammarby FF have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when IFK Goteborg 0-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 52%, Hammarby FF 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (IFK Goteborg) and 52% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF in 44%; Hammarby FF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 37% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 52% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hammarby FF defy the odds to beat IFK Goteborg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat IFK Goteborg 1-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.35 xG and Hammarby FF 1.20 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hammarby FF outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.89 / defence 0.83 against Hammarby FF attack 1.10 / defence 1.03, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 40% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 33%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Hammarby FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 44%, Hammarby FF 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was vindicated by the result. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.