IFK Goteborg 1-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF meet at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
IFK Goteborg (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg at Gamla Ullevi this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Djurgardens IF have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Djurgardens IF hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2026, ended 0–6 with Djurgardens IF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Djurgardens IF have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
IFK Goteborg half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 49% versus Djurgardens IF 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 51% | Djurgardens IF 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 0.71 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.929 / defence 0.845 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.100 / defence 0.541. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.319. Djurgardens IF's defence strength of 0.541 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 IFK Goteborg games / 55 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 22% | Draw 30% | Djurgardens IF 48%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 4.55 | Draw 3.33 | Djurgardens IF 2.08. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Djurgardens IF at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IFK Goteborg 60% | Djurgardens IF 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 22% | Draw 30% | Djurgardens IF 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 36% | xG IFK Goteborg 0.71 / Djurgardens IF 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.929 / def 0.845 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.100 / def 0.541 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Djurgardens IF xG
36%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 22% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 48% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF?
Record (9 meetings): IFK Goteborg 1W | Draws 3 | Djurgardens IF 5W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from IFK Goteborg's attack rating (0.93) and Djurgardens IF's defence rating (0.54), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (1.10x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
22%
4.64
30%
3.34
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
1.94
1.23
Djurgardens IF xG
4.64
22%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
49%
2.04
Win to Nil
6%
15.82
24%
4.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 17.6 | 10.8 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.23 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IFK Goteborg's recent record stands at 26W 10D 19L from 55 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF, meanwhile, have gone 28W 13D 14L across 55 games — 1.76 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for IFK Goteborg against 1.76 for Djurgardens IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, IFK Goteborg have managed 13W 4D 10L from 27 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Djurgardens IF's away record stands at 16W 4D 7L across 27 trips, a 1.93 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.89 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 26W 10D 19L in their last 55 games (1.60 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 28W 13D 14L in their last 55 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.59 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.93 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 28 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 6-0 on 4 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
IFK Goteborg
4
Draws
5
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 1, Djurgardens IF have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2026, when IFK Goteborg 1-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 52%, Djurgardens IF 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (IFK Goteborg) and 37% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 48%; Djurgardens IF in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 33% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 37% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 26, as IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 0.71 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.23 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.93 / defence 0.84 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.10 / defence 0.54, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 22% | Draw 30% | Djurgardens IF 48%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 51%, Djurgardens IF 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.60 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.