IFK Goteborg 0-4 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BK Hacken at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg host BK Hacken at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Goteborg stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Goteborg have posted 6W 1D 3L at Gamla Ullevi — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gamla Ullevi. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — IFK Goteborg are significantly better at Gamla Ullevi than their overall form suggests.
BK Hacken — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
BK Hacken's away record: 6W 4D 0L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour BK Hacken — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, IFK Goteborg have won 1, BK Hacken 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with IFK Goteborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
IFK Goteborg in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
BK Hacken in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IFK Goteborg 47% and BK Hacken 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 48% | BK Hacken 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.12 xG and BK Hacken 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.935 / defence 0.965 | BK Hacken attack 1.305 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.192. BK Hacken have an above-average attack strength of 1.305 — the away xG of 1.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 IFK Goteborg games / 58 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 26% | Draw 31% | BK Hacken 44%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | BK Hacken 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BK Hacken are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IFK Goteborg 40% | BK Hacken 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 26% | Draw 31% | BK Hacken 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.12 / BK Hacken 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.935 / def 0.965 | BK Hacken attack 1.305 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.50
BK Hacken xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken?
IFK Goteborg 0 - 4 BK Hacken.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken part of?
IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 26% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken?
Record (2 meetings): IFK Goteborg 1W | Draws 0 | BK Hacken 1W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. BK Hacken (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from IFK Goteborg's attack rating (0.94) and BK Hacken's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
26%
3.86
31%
3.27
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.62
1.50
BK Hacken xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
6%
17.32
14%
7.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.50 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Goteborg's recent record stands at 24W 11D 23L from 58 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five.
BK Hacken, meanwhile, have gone 26W 18D 14L across 58 games — 1.66 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Goteborg on 1.43 PPG, BK Hacken on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, IFK Goteborg have managed 13W 6D 10L from 29 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BK Hacken's away record stands at 11W 12D 6L across 29 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.86 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 76%.
Last 58 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
BK Hacken
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 24W 11D 23L in their last 58 games (1.43 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 26W 18D 14L in their last 58 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or BK Hacken away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.55 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.55 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2022, when BK Hacken won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
IFK Goteborg
1
Draws
6
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 3, BK Hacken have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when IFK Goteborg 0-2 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 48%, BK Hacken 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (IFK Goteborg) and 55% (BK Hacken).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of IFK Goteborg's games and 79% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 55% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant BK Hacken run riot with a 0-4 hammering of IFK Goteborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat IFK Goteborg 0-4 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.12 xG and BK Hacken 1.50 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. IFK Goteborg fell 1.1 short of their projected output. BK Hacken outscored their 1.50 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.94 / defence 0.96 against BK Hacken attack 1.30 / defence 0.82, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 26% | Draw 31% | BK Hacken 44%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 48%, BK Hacken 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
BK Hacken's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.43 PPG, BK Hacken 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.