IF Elfsborg 3-0 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IF Elfsborg host Helsingborg at Borås Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 31 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IF Elfsborg at Borås Arena this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helsingborg stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Helsingborg's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, IF Elfsborg have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, IF Elfsborg have won 1, Helsingborg 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Helsingborg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
IF Elfsborg in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Helsingborg in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 52% versus Helsingborg 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 57% | Helsingborg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.27 xG and Helsingborg 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.203 / defence 1.039 | Helsingborg attack 0.729 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.268. Helsingborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing IF Elfsborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 IF Elfsborg games / 28 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 65% | Draw 22% | Helsingborg 13%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.54 | Draw 4.55 | Helsingborg 7.69. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (65%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 80% | Helsingborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 31 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 65% | Draw 22% | Helsingborg 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 57% | xG IF Elfsborg 2.27 / Helsingborg 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.203 / def 1.039 | Helsingborg attack 0.729 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Helsingborg xG
57%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 31 October 2022 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg?
IF Elfsborg 3 - 0 Helsingborg.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 65% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 13% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Helsingborg?
Record (3 meetings): IF Elfsborg 1W | Draws 1 | Helsingborg 1W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Helsingborg in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Helsingborg (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.20x the league average against Helsingborg's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 2.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Helsingborg's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
65%
1.53
22%
4.53
13%
7.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.23
0.96
Helsingborg xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
7.84
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
10%
9.71
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
1%
76.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.96 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 28W 14D 16L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Helsingborg's form line: 17W 13D 28L from 58 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, IF Elfsborg are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Helsingborg.
Venue Form
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 1.83 PPG from 29 outings (15W 8D 6L).
On the road, Helsingborg have gone 9W 7D 13L from 29 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.14 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
Helsingborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 28W 14D 16L in their last 58 games (1.69 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 17W 13D 28L in their last 58 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Helsingborg away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.83 PPG; Helsingborg away: 1.17 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Helsingborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Helsingborg in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 October 2022, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2022, when IF Elfsborg won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting Helsingborg specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
IF Elfsborg
1
Draws
1
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Helsingborg?
From 4 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 2, Helsingborg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2022, when IF Elfsborg 3-0 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Helsingborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 55%, Helsingborg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for IF Elfsborg and 59% for Helsingborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Helsingborg in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Helsingborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 52% of Helsingborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 59% of Helsingborg's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Helsingborg tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IF Elfsborg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Helsingborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Helsingborg 3-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.27 xG and Helsingborg 0.96 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Helsingborg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.20 / defence 1.04 against Helsingborg attack 0.73 / defence 1.28, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 65% | Draw 22% | Helsingborg 13%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 57%, Helsingborg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Helsingborg's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Helsingborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.