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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out Sirius 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IF Elfsborg beat Sirius 4-3 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.44 xG and Sirius 1.14 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sirius outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.14 / defence 0.91 against Sirius attack 1.08 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 44% | Draw 26% | Sirius 30%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 62%, Sirius 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was vindicated by the result. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights