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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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IF Elfsborg and IFK Varnamo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 19, as IF Elfsborg and IFK Varnamo drew 2-2 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.45 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.12 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. IFK Varnamo outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.41 / defence 1.17 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.74 / defence 1.24, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 66% | Draw 19% | IFK Varnamo 15%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 60%, IFK Varnamo 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

IFK Varnamo's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights