IF Elfsborg 2-0 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 13 as IF Elfsborg welcome Hammarby FF to Borås Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 3 July 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IF Elfsborg have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's home record at Borås Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Borås Arena this season.
Hammarby FF — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
IF Elfsborg carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.80 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for IF Elfsborg, 1 for Hammarby FF and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with IF Elfsborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
IF Elfsborg in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 55% versus Hammarby FF 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 55% | Hammarby FF 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.35 xG and Hammarby FF 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.429 / defence 0.766 | Hammarby FF attack 0.908 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.144. IF Elfsborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.429 — their λ of 2.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. IF Elfsborg's defence rating of 0.766 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 IF Elfsborg games / 43 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 71% | Draw 19% | Hammarby FF 10%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.41 | Draw 5.26 | Hammarby FF 10.00. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (71%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: IF Elfsborg 40% | Hammarby FF 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 3 Jul 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 71% | Draw 19% | Hammarby FF 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 51% | xG IF Elfsborg 2.35 / Hammarby FF 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.429 / def 0.766 | Hammarby FF attack 0.908 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Hammarby FF xG
51%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 3 July 2023 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
IF Elfsborg 2 - 0 Hammarby FF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 71% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 10% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF?
Record (3 meetings): IF Elfsborg 1W | Draws 1 | Hammarby FF 1W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Hammarby FF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.43x the league average against Hammarby FF's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 2.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 3-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
71%
1.41
19%
5.27
10%
10.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.15
0.80
Hammarby FF xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.27
19%
Draw
10.10
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
10%
10.52
Win to Nil
32%
3.12
1%
106.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.80 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IF Elfsborg come into this having played 42 games, going 22W 12D 8L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hammarby FF sit at 1.64 PPG from 42 outings (19W 12D 11L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Elfsborg on 1.86 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
IF Elfsborg's home form reads 12W 6D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Hammarby FF have taken 1.14 points per game from 21 outings (6W 6D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.79 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 22W 12D 8L in their last 42 games (1.86 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 19W 12D 11L in their last 42 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Hammarby FF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.00 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.14 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Hammarby FF have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2022, when Hammarby FF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
IF Elfsborg
2
Draws
6
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 2, Hammarby FF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 57%, Hammarby FF 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (IF Elfsborg) and 43% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF in 38%; Hammarby FF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 38% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of IF Elfsborg's recent games and 43% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hammarby FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Hammarby FF 2-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.35 xG and Hammarby FF 0.80 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.43 / defence 0.77 against Hammarby FF attack 0.91 / defence 1.08, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 71% | Draw 19% | Hammarby FF 10%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 55%, Hammarby FF 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.86 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.