AIK Stockholm 1-2 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 12 as AIK Stockholm welcome IF Elfsborg to Friends Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 June 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Friends Arena, AIK Stockholm have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
IF Elfsborg's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour IF Elfsborg — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for AIK Stockholm, 1 for IF Elfsborg and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with IF Elfsborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
AIK Stockholm in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
IF Elfsborg in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 47% versus IF Elfsborg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 42% | IF Elfsborg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.18 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.856 / defence 1.024 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.218 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.151. IF Elfsborg have an above-average attack strength of 1.218 — the away xG of 1.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 AIK Stockholm games / 41 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 29% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 41%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | IF Elfsborg 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: AIK Stockholm 50% | IF Elfsborg 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jun 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 29% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.18 / IF Elfsborg 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.856 / def 1.024 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.218 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.44
IF Elfsborg xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 June 2023 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
AIK Stockholm 1 - 2 IF Elfsborg.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg part of?
AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 29% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg?
Record (3 meetings): AIK Stockholm 1W | Draws 1 | IF Elfsborg 1W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AIK Stockholm's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
29%
3.40
29%
3.42
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.62
1.44
IF Elfsborg xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
7%
14.30
13%
7.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.44 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AIK Stockholm's recent record stands at 32W 13D 15L from 60 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five.
IF Elfsborg, meanwhile, have gone 30W 14D 16L across 60 games — 1.73 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.82 PPG, IF Elfsborg on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AIK Stockholm have managed 21W 6D 3L from 30 games — 2.30 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — AIK Stockholm are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
IF Elfsborg's away record stands at 14W 6D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.77 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 32W 13D 15L in their last 60 games (1.82 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 30W 14D 16L in their last 60 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or IF Elfsborg away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 2.30 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.60 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2024, when IF Elfsborg won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AIK Stockholm
2
Draws
4
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 4, IF Elfsborg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 AIK Stockholm.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 37%, IF Elfsborg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (AIK Stockholm) and 50% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 47% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 50% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out AIK Stockholm 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat AIK Stockholm 1-2 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.18 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.44 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.86 / defence 1.02 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.22 / defence 0.90, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 29% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 41%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 42%, IF Elfsborg 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.82 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.