IF Elfsborg 4-0 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF meet at Borås Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Monday 19 May 2025 at 18:10 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IF Elfsborg's home record at Borås Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — IF Elfsborg are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
Djurgardens IF (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Djurgardens IF's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — IF Elfsborg lead 2W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2024, ended 1–2 with Djurgardens IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 52% versus Djurgardens IF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 62% | Djurgardens IF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.97 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.559 / defence 1.030 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.916 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.372. IF Elfsborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.559 — their λ of 1.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 39 IF Elfsborg games / 38 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 53% | Draw 22% | Djurgardens IF 25%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Djurgardens IF 4.00. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 60% | Djurgardens IF 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 19 May 2025, 18:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 53% | Draw 22% | Djurgardens IF 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.97 / Djurgardens IF 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.559 / def 1.030 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.916 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Djurgardens IF xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 18:10 on Monday 19 May 2025 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
IF Elfsborg 4 - 0 Djurgardens IF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 53% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF?
Record (7 meetings): IF Elfsborg 2W | Draws 2 | Djurgardens IF 3W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IF Elfsborg's attacking strength (1.56x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (0.92x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
53%
1.88
22%
4.58
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.27
1.29
Djurgardens IF xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
14%
7.18
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
3%
28.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.29 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IF Elfsborg come into this having played 60 games, going 33W 10D 17L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.72 PPG from 60 outings (31W 10D 19L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for IF Elfsborg against 1.72 for Djurgardens IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
IF Elfsborg's home form reads 19W 6D 5L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.43 points per game from 30 outings (13W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.43 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Djurgardens IF in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 33W 10D 17L in their last 60 games (1.82 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 31W 10D 19L in their last 60 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Djurgardens IF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.10 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.43 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 0-4 on 22 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
2
Draws
4
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 4, Djurgardens IF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when IF Elfsborg 2-1 Djurgardens IF.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 53%, Djurgardens IF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (IF Elfsborg) and 53% (Djurgardens IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 50% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 53% of Djurgardens IF's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IF Elfsborg run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Djurgardens IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Djurgardens IF 4-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.97 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.29 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Djurgardens IF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.56 / defence 1.03 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.92 / defence 0.92, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 53% | Draw 22% | Djurgardens IF 25%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 62%, Djurgardens IF 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.82 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.