IF Elfsborg 4-4 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BK Hacken at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees BK Hacken travel to Borås Arena to take on IF Elfsborg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 July 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Borås Arena, IF Elfsborg have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — IF Elfsborg are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, BK Hacken stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. BK Hacken are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IF Elfsborg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, BK Hacken in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for IF Elfsborg, 0 for BK Hacken and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
IF Elfsborg in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IF Elfsborg 47% and BK Hacken 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 58% | BK Hacken 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.67 xG and BK Hacken 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.273 / defence 1.032 | BK Hacken attack 1.454 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.117. IF Elfsborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — their λ of 1.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. BK Hacken have an above-average attack strength of 1.454 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 IF Elfsborg games / 45 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 38% | Draw 24% | BK Hacken 38%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | BK Hacken 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 60% | BK Hacken 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 38% | Draw 24% | BK Hacken 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.67 / BK Hacken 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.273 / def 1.032 | BK Hacken attack 1.454 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.68
BK Hacken xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 31 July 2022 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
IF Elfsborg 4 - 4 BK Hacken.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken part of?
IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 38% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken?
Record (2 meetings): IF Elfsborg 1W | Draws 1 | BK Hacken 0W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. BK Hacken (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IF Elfsborg's attack rating (1.27) and BK Hacken's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
38%
2.62
24%
4.23
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.35
1.68
BK Hacken xG
2.62
38%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
19%
5.34
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
7%
14.01
7%
13.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.68 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IF Elfsborg's recent record stands at 22W 9D 14L from 45 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BK Hacken, meanwhile, have gone 18W 13D 14L across 45 games — 1.49 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Elfsborg on 1.67 PPG, BK Hacken on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, IF Elfsborg have managed 12W 5D 5L from 22 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BK Hacken's away record stands at 8W 9D 5L across 22 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.76 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 78%.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 22W 9D 14L in their last 45 games (1.67 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 18W 13D 14L in their last 45 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or BK Hacken away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.86 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.50 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
IF Elfsborg
3
Draws
4
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 3, BK Hacken have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — IF Elfsborg at 50%, BK Hacken at 86%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for IF Elfsborg and 64% for BK Hacken. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of IF Elfsborg's games and 86% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 64% of BK Hacken's.
Do IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken finished level at 4-4 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.67 xG and BK Hacken 1.68 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. BK Hacken outscored their 1.68 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.27 / defence 1.03 against BK Hacken attack 1.45 / defence 0.90, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 38% | Draw 24% | BK Hacken 38%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 58%, BK Hacken 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
BK Hacken's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.67 PPG, BK Hacken 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.