Degerfors IF 2-1 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Kalmar FF (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Degerfors IF face Kalmar FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stora Valla plays host to Degerfors IF versus Kalmar FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 30 July 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Degerfors IF have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's home record at Stora Valla: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kalmar FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Kalmar FF have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Kalmar FF arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Kalmar FF in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Kalmar FF hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with Kalmar FF winning.
It is worth noting that Kalmar FF have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 49% versus Kalmar FF 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 53% | Kalmar FF 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.11 xG and Kalmar FF 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.795 / defence 1.255 | Kalmar FF attack 0.944 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.105. Degerfors IF's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Degerfors IF games / 45 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 31% | Draw 28% | Kalmar FF 41%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Kalmar FF 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kalmar FF as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Degerfors IF 60% | Kalmar FF 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 31% | Draw 28% | Kalmar FF 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Degerfors IF 1.11 / Kalmar FF 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.795 / def 1.255 | Kalmar FF attack 0.944 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Kalmar FF xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF?
Degerfors IF 2 - 1 Kalmar FF.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF part of?
Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 31% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF?
Record (3 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 0 | Kalmar FF 3W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (0.80) and Kalmar FF's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (0.94x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
31%
3.22
28%
3.52
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.42
1.31
Kalmar FF xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
8%
11.92
13%
7.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.31 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, Degerfors IF have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 12W 6D 27L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kalmar FF's form line: 20W 11D 14L from 45 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-W. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Kalmar FF are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Degerfors IF.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Degerfors IF have posted 1.23 PPG from 22 outings (8W 3D 11L).
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 9W 5D 8L from 22 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.29 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 12W 6D 27L in their last 45 games (0.93 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 20W 11D 14L in their last 45 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Kalmar FF away?
Kalmar FF's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.23 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Kalmar FF go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kalmar FF won 4-1 on 12 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Degerfors IF
0
Draws
6
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF?
From 7 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 1, Kalmar FF have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-1 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 54%, Kalmar FF 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Degerfors IF) and 50% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Kalmar FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Degerfors IF's games and 59% of Kalmar FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 50% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Degerfors IF defy the odds to beat Kalmar FF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat Kalmar FF 2-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.11 xG and Kalmar FF 1.31 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Degerfors IF beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.80 / defence 1.25 against Kalmar FF attack 0.94 / defence 0.96, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 31% | Draw 28% | Kalmar FF 41%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Degerfors IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 53%, Kalmar FF 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Kalmar FF arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Degerfors IF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.