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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant AIK Stockholm run riot with a 0-3 hammering of IF Elfsborg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AIK Stockholm beat IF Elfsborg 0-3 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.15 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.34 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. IF Elfsborg fell 2.1 short of their projected output. AIK Stockholm outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.31 / defence 1.17 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.82 / defence 1.08, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 55% | Draw 22% | AIK Stockholm 23%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a AIK Stockholm win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 64%, AIK Stockholm 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

AIK Stockholm's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.47 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights