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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 55%, yet in-form AIK Stockholm provide a compelling counter-argument — this IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees AIK Stockholm travel to Borås Arena to take on IF Elfsborg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 November 2025, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IF Elfsborg have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, IF Elfsborg have posted 4W 2D 4L at Borås Arena — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — IF Elfsborg are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, AIK Stockholm have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. AIK Stockholm's 1.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of IF Elfsborg's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for IF Elfsborg, 3 for AIK Stockholm and 1 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with AIK Stockholm winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
IF Elfsborg trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
AIK Stockholm trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 57% versus AIK Stockholm 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 64% | AIK Stockholm 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.15 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.315 / defence 1.172 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.818 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.394. IF Elfsborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.315 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 IF Elfsborg games / 58 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 55% | Draw 22% | AIK Stockholm 23%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | AIK Stockholm 4.35. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AIK Stockholm (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 70% | AIK Stockholm 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (8 meetings): IF Elfsborg 4W | Draws 1 | AIK Stockholm 3W • Goals trend: 3.62 goals/game | Total H2H goals: IF Elfsborg 17 – 12 AIK Stockholm • H2H markets: BTTS 62% | Over 2.5 75% | Win rates: IF Elfsborg 50% / Draw 12% / AIK Stockholm 38% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 55% / draw 22% / away 23% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.62 goals/game (75% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.48 (68% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 62%, Poisson probability 66% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• IF Elfsborg (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L • AIK Stockholm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D • IF Elfsborg home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | CS 1 • AIK Stockholm away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | CS 3 • Form edge: AIK Stockholm lead by 0.70 PPG (1.20 vs 0.50) • xG vs form (IF Elfsborg): Poisson xG of 2.15 aligns with form scoring rate of 2.30 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (AIK Stockholm): Poisson projects 1.34 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.90 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.5 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.48 (68% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~60% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 66% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours AIK Stockholm on PPG but Poisson rates IF Elfsborg higher (55% vs 23% for AIK Stockholm) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 55% | Draw 22% | AIK Stockholm 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG IF Elfsborg 2.15 / AIK Stockholm 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.315 / def 1.172 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.818 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (55%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.34
AIK Stockholm xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
IF Elfsborg 0 - 3 AIK Stockholm.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm part of?
IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 55% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm?
• Record (8 meetings): IF Elfsborg 4W | Draws 1 | AIK Stockholm 3W • Goals trend: 3.62 goals/game | Total H2H goals: IF Elfsborg 17 – 12 AIK Stockholm • H2H markets: BTTS 62% | Over 2.5 75% | Win rates: IF Elfsborg 50% / Draw 12% / AIK Stockholm 38% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 55% / draw 22% / away 23% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.62 goals/game (75% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.48 (68% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 62%, Poisson probability 66% — no strong aligned signal
What form are IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm in?
• IF Elfsborg (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L • AIK Stockholm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D • IF Elfsborg home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | CS 1 • AIK Stockholm away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | CS 3 • Form edge: AIK Stockholm lead by 0.70 PPG (1.20 vs 0.50) • xG vs form (IF Elfsborg): Poisson xG of 2.15 aligns with form scoring rate of 2.30 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (AIK Stockholm): Poisson projects 1.34 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.90 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.5 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.48 (68% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~60% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 66% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours AIK Stockholm on PPG but Poisson rates IF Elfsborg higher (55% vs 23% for AIK Stockholm) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture