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Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out IF Brommapojkarna 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mjallby AIF beat IF Brommapojkarna 0-1 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 25, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.29 xG and Mjallby AIF 2.15 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IF Brommapojkarna fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Mjallby AIF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.28 / defence 1.30 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.22 / defence 0.72, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 22% | Draw 21% | Mjallby AIF 57%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 57%, Mjallby AIF 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Mjallby AIF's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights