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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out IF Brommapojkarna 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Djurgardens IF beat IF Brommapojkarna 0-1 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.18 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.21 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IF Brommapojkarna fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.79 / defence 1.11 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.83 / defence 1.11, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 35% | Draw 28% | Djurgardens IF 37%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 63%, Djurgardens IF 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights