IF Brommapojkarna 0-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Djurgardens IF (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as IF Brommapojkarna face Djurgardens IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 6 as IF Brommapojkarna welcome Djurgardens IF to Grimsta IP. Kick-off is set for Thursday 29 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IF Brommapojkarna stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Grimsta IP, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Djurgardens IF — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Djurgardens IF's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of IF Brommapojkarna's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Djurgardens IF have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 4 encounters against IF Brommapojkarna's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Djurgardens IF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Djurgardens IF have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
IF Brommapojkarna trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Djurgardens IF trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Brommapojkarna 60% versus Djurgardens IF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 63% | Djurgardens IF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.18 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.786 / defence 1.107 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.831 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.316. IF Brommapojkarna's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 IF Brommapojkarna games / 40 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 35% | Draw 28% | Djurgardens IF 37%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Djurgardens IF 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: IF Brommapojkarna 60% | Djurgardens IF 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Thursday 29 May 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 35% | Draw 28% | Djurgardens IF 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.18 / Djurgardens IF 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.786 / def 1.107 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.831 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Djurgardens IF xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 29 May 2025 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF?
IF Brommapojkarna 0 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 35% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF?
Record (4 meetings): IF Brommapojkarna 0W | Draws 0 | Djurgardens IF 4W.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF in?
IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IF Brommapojkarna's attack at 0.79x the league average against Djurgardens IF's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
35%
2.86
28%
3.54
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
2.39
1.21
Djurgardens IF xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
10%
9.59
11%
8.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.21 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IF Brommapojkarna's recent record stands at 19W 14D 27L from 60 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Djurgardens IF, meanwhile, have gone 31W 10D 19L across 60 games — 1.72 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Djurgardens IF by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IF Brommapojkarna heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, IF Brommapojkarna have managed 9W 8D 13L from 30 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Djurgardens IF's away record stands at 13W 4D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.43 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 31W 10D 19L in their last 60 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 1.17 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.43 PPG.
Have IF Brommapojkarna or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Brommapojkarna have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 22 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2024, when Djurgardens IF won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Brommapojkarna's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
IF Brommapojkarna
0
Draws
6
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF?
From 7 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, Djurgardens IF have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Djurgardens IF 1-2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 57%, Djurgardens IF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (IF Brommapojkarna) and 53% (Djurgardens IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Brommapojkarna have failed to score in 33% of games; Djurgardens IF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Brommapojkarna play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of IF Brommapojkarna's recent matches and 50% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 53% of Djurgardens IF's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
IF Brommapojkarna have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out IF Brommapojkarna 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat IF Brommapojkarna 0-1 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.18 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.21 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IF Brommapojkarna fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.79 / defence 1.11 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.83 / defence 1.11, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 35% | Draw 28% | Djurgardens IF 37%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 63%, Djurgardens IF 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.