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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Degerfors IF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over IF Brommapojkarna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Degerfors IF beat IF Brommapojkarna 1-3 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 30, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.68 xG and Degerfors IF 1.76 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Degerfors IF outscored their 1.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.98 / defence 1.24 against Degerfors IF attack 1.00 / defence 1.18, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 35% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 39%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 54%, Degerfors IF 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Degerfors IF's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IF Brommapojkarna 1.10 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights