🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

IF Brommapojkarna host Degerfors IF at Grimsta IP in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

IF Brommapojkarna — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

At home at Grimsta IP, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 3W 0D 7L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Degerfors IF have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Degerfors IF have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IF Brommapojkarna 0.80 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for IF Brommapojkarna, 2 for Degerfors IF and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jun 2025, ended 3–0 with IF Brommapojkarna winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

IF Brommapojkarna in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Brommapojkarna 56% versus Degerfors IF 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 54% | Degerfors IF 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.68 xG and Degerfors IF 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.980 / defence 1.243 | Degerfors IF attack 1.004 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.408. Data: 59 IF Brommapojkarna games / 29 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 35% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 39%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Degerfors IF 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Degerfors IF at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: IF Brommapojkarna 50% | Degerfors IF 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights