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Prediction vindicated as Hammarby FF edge out Sirius 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hammarby FF beat Sirius 3-2 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.99 xG and Sirius 0.92 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sirius outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.28 / defence 0.64 against Sirius attack 1.10 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 62% | Draw 22% | Sirius 16%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 53%, Sirius 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.63 PPG, Sirius 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sirius (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights