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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 62% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs Sirius encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 9 as Hammarby FF welcome Sirius to 3Arena. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 14 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Hammarby FF's home record at 3Arena: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at 3Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Sirius — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Sirius have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Hammarby FF carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Hammarby FF: 5 wins from 7 previous clashes against 0 for Sirius, with 2 draws across those contests.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 3–0 with Hammarby FF winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Hammarby FF and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Sirius in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 45% versus Sirius 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 53% | Sirius 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.99 xG and Sirius 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.282 / defence 0.637 | Sirius attack 1.103 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.307. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hammarby FF's defence rating of 0.637 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Hammarby FF games / 38 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 62% | Draw 22% | Sirius 16%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Sirius 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hammarby FF 30% | Sirius 60%.

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