Hammarby FF 3-2 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 62% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs Sirius encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 9 as Hammarby FF welcome Sirius to 3Arena. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 14 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Hammarby FF's home record at 3Arena: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at 3Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sirius — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sirius have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Hammarby FF carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Hammarby FF: 5 wins from 7 previous clashes against 0 for Sirius, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 3–0 with Hammarby FF winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Hammarby FF and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sirius in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 45% versus Sirius 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 53% | Sirius 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.99 xG and Sirius 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.282 / defence 0.637 | Sirius attack 1.103 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.307. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hammarby FF's defence rating of 0.637 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Hammarby FF games / 38 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 62% | Draw 22% | Sirius 16%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Sirius 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hammarby FF 30% | Sirius 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 62% | Draw 22% | Sirius 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 52% | xG Hammarby FF 1.99 / Sirius 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.282 / def 0.637 | Sirius attack 1.103 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Sirius xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Sirius kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Sirius kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 14 May 2025 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Hammarby FF 3 - 2 Sirius.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Sirius part of?
Hammarby FF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 62% chance of winning, Sirius a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hammarby FF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Sirius?
Record (7 meetings): Hammarby FF 5W | Draws 2 | Sirius 0W.
What form are Hammarby FF and Sirius in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Sirius (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Sirius's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.65
16%
6.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.91
0.92
Sirius xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
6.11
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
14%
7.33
Win to Nil
25%
4.04
2%
44.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.92 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hammarby FF come into this having played 60 games, going 27W 17D 16L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Sirius sit at 1.38 PPG from 60 outings (24W 11D 25L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.63 PPG, Sirius on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hammarby FF's home form reads 17W 9D 4L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Sirius have taken 1.33 points per game from 30 outings (11W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.63 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 27W 17D 16L in their last 60 games (1.63 PPG), while Sirius have gone 24W 11D 25L in their last 60 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Sirius away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.00 PPG; Sirius away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sirius in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2022, when Hammarby FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
2
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 6, Sirius have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Sirius 2-0 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Sirius?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 60%, Sirius 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Hammarby FF and 57% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sirius in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Hammarby FF's games and 57% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Hammarby FF's matches and 57% of Sirius's.
Do Hammarby FF and Sirius tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sirius in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hammarby FF edge out Sirius 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Sirius 3-2 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.99 xG and Sirius 0.92 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sirius outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.28 / defence 0.64 against Sirius attack 1.10 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 62% | Draw 22% | Sirius 16%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 53%, Sirius 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.63 PPG, Sirius 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sirius (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.