🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of IF Elfsborg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hammarby FF beat IF Elfsborg 3-0 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 2.32 xG and IF Elfsborg 0.70 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.34 / defence 0.75 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.66 / defence 1.19, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 72% | Draw 19% | IF Elfsborg 8%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 56%, IF Elfsborg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hammarby FF's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.44. Form held, and they took the win. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights