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Poisson model favours Hammarby FF (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hammarby FF face IF Elfsborg.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 30 as Hammarby FF welcome IF Elfsborg to 3Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Hammarby FF have posted 8W 0D 2L at 3Arena — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at 3Arena. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Hammarby FF are significantly better at 3Arena than their overall form suggests.

IF Elfsborg — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.

IF Elfsborg away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Hammarby FF carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Hammarby FF have won 4, IF Elfsborg 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2025, ended 2–0 with Hammarby FF winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Hammarby FF trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

IF Elfsborg trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 44% versus IF Elfsborg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 56% | IF Elfsborg 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 2.32 xG and IF Elfsborg 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.344 / defence 0.754 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.661 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.408. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.344 — their λ of 2.32 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hammarby FF's defence rating of 0.754 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Hammarby FF games / 59 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 72% | Draw 19% | IF Elfsborg 8%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.39 | Draw 5.26 | IF Elfsborg 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (72%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 50% | IF Elfsborg 40% BTTS from recent games.

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