Hammarby FF 3-2 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hammarby FF (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hammarby FF face IF Brommapojkarna.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna meet at 3Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 July 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hammarby FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at 3Arena, Hammarby FF have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at 3Arena.
IF Brommapojkarna (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Brommapojkarna away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Hammarby FF's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of IF Brommapojkarna's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Hammarby FF, 1 for IF Brommapojkarna and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2025, ended 2–0 with Hammarby FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Hammarby FF — key trading statistics (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
IF Brommapojkarna — key trading statistics (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 36% versus IF Brommapojkarna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 49% | IF Brommapojkarna 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.25 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.071 / defence 0.710 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.145 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.222. Hammarby FF's defence rating of 0.710 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Hammarby FF games / 45 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 42% | Draw 28% | IF Brommapojkarna 29%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | IF Brommapojkarna 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 40% | IF Brommapojkarna 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jul 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 42% | Draw 28% | IF Brommapojkarna 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Hammarby FF 1.25 / IF Brommapojkarna 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.071 / def 0.710 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.145 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.99
IF Brommapojkarna xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 20 July 2025 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Hammarby FF 3 - 2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 42% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Record (5 meetings): Hammarby FF 3W | Draws 1 | IF Brommapojkarna 1W.
What form are Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hammarby FF's attack rating (1.07) and IF Brommapojkarna's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IF Brommapojkarna's attack (1.15x) against Hammarby FF's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.52
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.25
0.99
IF Brommapojkarna xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
8%
11.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.99 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 25W 9D 11L from 45 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Brommapojkarna, meanwhile, have gone 14W 11D 20L across 45 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hammarby FF by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IF Brommapojkarna heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 15W 5D 3L from 23 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Brommapojkarna's away record stands at 8W 6D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.44 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 25W 9D 11L in their last 45 games (1.87 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 14W 11D 20L in their last 45 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.17 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or IF Brommapojkarna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, IF Brommapojkarna in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hammarby FF have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against IF Brommapojkarna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
1
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 7 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 4, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when IF Brommapojkarna 1-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 39%, IF Brommapojkarna 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Hammarby FF) and 56% (IF Brommapojkarna).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play IF Brommapojkarna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 61% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 56% of IF Brommapojkarna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hammarby FF edge out IF Brommapojkarna 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat IF Brommapojkarna 3-2 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.25 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 0.99 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IF Brommapojkarna outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.07 / defence 0.71 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.15 / defence 0.85, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 42% | Draw 28% | IF Brommapojkarna 29%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 49%, IF Brommapojkarna 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.