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Prediction vindicated as Hammarby FF edge out Degerfors IF 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hammarby FF beat Degerfors IF 1-0 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 2.19 xG and Degerfors IF 1.32 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hammarby FF fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Degerfors IF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.26 / defence 0.80 against Degerfors IF attack 1.24 / defence 1.27, drawn from 41/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 57% | Draw 21% | Degerfors IF 22%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 57%, Degerfors IF 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hammarby FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.53 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights