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Poisson model favours Hammarby FF (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hammarby FF face Degerfors IF.

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Match Analysis

Hammarby FF host Degerfors IF at 3Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 26 May 2025 at 18:10 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Hammarby FF's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at 3Arena this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at 3Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Degerfors IF haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Degerfors IF away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Hammarby FF carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

Hammarby FF hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 0 for Degerfors IF, with 1 draws in between.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Hammarby FF and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 37% versus Degerfors IF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 57% | Degerfors IF 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 2.19 xG and Degerfors IF 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.264 / defence 0.802 | Degerfors IF attack 1.241 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.331. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — their λ of 2.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing Hammarby FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Degerfors IF have an above-average attack strength of 1.241 — the away xG of 1.32 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Hammarby FF games / 10 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 57% | Draw 21% | Degerfors IF 22%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Degerfors IF 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.19 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.51 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Hammarby FF 30% | Degerfors IF 60%.

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