Hammarby FF 1-0 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 48%, yet in-form AIK Stockholm provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm meet at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hammarby FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tele2 Arena, Hammarby FF have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Hammarby FF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
AIK Stockholm have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, AIK Stockholm are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hammarby FF have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, AIK Stockholm in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Hammarby FF — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
AIK Stockholm — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 67% versus AIK Stockholm 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 62% | AIK Stockholm 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.47 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.193 / defence 0.877 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.991 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.065. Data: 52 Hammarby FF games / 52 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 48% | Draw 30% | AIK Stockholm 22%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | AIK Stockholm 4.55. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AIK Stockholm (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Hammarby FF 70% | AIK Stockholm 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 48% | Draw 30% | AIK Stockholm 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Hammarby FF 1.47 / AIK Stockholm 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.193 / def 0.877 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.991 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.93
AIK Stockholm xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Hammarby FF 1 - 0 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 48% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hammarby FF's attack rating (1.19) and AIK Stockholm's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AIK Stockholm's attack (0.99x) against Hammarby FF's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
48%
2.08
30%
3.35
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.40
0.93
AIK Stockholm xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
5%
19.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.93 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 19W 18D 15L from 52 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm, meanwhile, have gone 23W 14D 15L across 52 games — 1.60 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Hammarby FF against 1.60 for AIK Stockholm. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 10W 12D 3L from 25 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AIK Stockholm's away record stands at 7W 10D 8L across 25 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.19 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 19W 18D 15L in their last 52 games (1.44 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 23W 14D 15L in their last 52 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Hammarby FF's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 1.68 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hammarby FF have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against AIK Stockholm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hammarby FF
3
Draws
3
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 4, AIK Stockholm have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Hammarby FF 1-2 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 64%, AIK Stockholm 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Hammarby FF) and 40% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm in 32%; AIK Stockholm in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play AIK Stockholm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Hammarby FF's games and 48% of AIK Stockholm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 40% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hammarby FF edge out AIK Stockholm 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat AIK Stockholm 1-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.47 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.93 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AIK Stockholm landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.19 / defence 0.88 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.99 / defence 0.85, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 48% | Draw 30% | AIK Stockholm 22%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 62%, AIK Stockholm 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.44 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.