Degerfors IF 2-1 Halmstad – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs Halmstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stora Valla plays host to Degerfors IF versus Halmstad in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 16 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Degerfors IF have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's home record at Stora Valla: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Degerfors IF are significantly better at Stora Valla than their overall form suggests.
Halmstad's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Halmstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Halmstad's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Degerfors IF, 0.80 for Halmstad — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Degerfors IF lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Halmstad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 41% versus Halmstad 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Degerfors IF 54% | Halmstad 14%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.24 xG and Halmstad 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.948 / defence 1.264 | Halmstad attack 0.657 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.053. Data: 22 Degerfors IF games / 22 Halmstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 43% | Draw 33% | Halmstad 24%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Halmstad 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Degerfors IF as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 40% | Halmstad 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Halmstad | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 43% | Draw 33% | Halmstad 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Degerfors IF 1.24 / Halmstad 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.948 / def 1.264 | Halmstad attack 0.657 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Halmstad xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Halmstad kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Halmstad kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Halmstad?
Degerfors IF 2 - 1 Halmstad.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Halmstad being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Halmstad part of?
Degerfors IF vs Halmstad is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Halmstad?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 43% chance of winning, Halmstad a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Halmstad?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Degerfors IF and Halmstad will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Halmstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Halmstad?
Record (1 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 1 | Halmstad 0W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Halmstad in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Halmstad (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 0.95x the league average against Halmstad's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Halmstad's attack (0.66x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
43%
2.32
33%
3.07
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.12
0.87
Halmstad xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
7%
14.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.1 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Halmstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Halmstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 0.87 for Halmstad, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Halmstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Degerfors IF come into this having played 22 games, going 6W 4D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Halmstad sit at 1.05 PPG from 22 outings (4W 11D 7L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Halmstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Degerfors IF against 1.05 for Halmstad. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Degerfors IF's home form reads 5W 1D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Degerfors IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Halmstad have taken 0.90 points per game from 10 outings (2W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Degerfors IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Halmstad are on 0.68 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Halmstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Halmstad in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 6W 4D 12L in their last 22 games (1.00 PPG), while Halmstad have gone 4W 11D 7L in their last 22 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Halmstad away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.60 PPG; Halmstad away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Degerfors IF won 0-5 on 30 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Halmstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
1
Halmstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Halmstad?
From 7 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 4, Halmstad have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Halmstad last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Halmstad 0-3 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Halmstad?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Halmstad see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 40%, Halmstad 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Degerfors IF) and 20% (Halmstad).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 30% of games; Halmstad in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Halmstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Halmstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 40% of Halmstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Halmstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 20% of Halmstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Halmstad tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Halmstad in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Degerfors IF edge out Halmstad 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat Halmstad 2-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.24 xG and Halmstad 0.87 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.95 / defence 1.26 against Halmstad attack 0.66 / defence 0.91, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 43% | Draw 33% | Halmstad 24%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 54%, Halmstad 14%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Halmstad's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.00 PPG, Halmstad 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. Halmstad (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.