GIF Sundsvall 0-2 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AIK Stockholm make the trip to NP3 Arena to face GIF Sundsvall in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 May 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
AIK Stockholm have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, AIK Stockholm have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.53 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.870 / defence 1.349 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.998 / defence 1.329. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.032. AIK Stockholm bring a strong defensive rating of 1.329 — this is suppressing GIF Sundsvall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 GIF Sundsvall games / 35 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 41% | Draw 25% | AIK Stockholm 35%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | AIK Stockholm 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIF Sundsvall are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 41% | Draw 25% | AIK Stockholm 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.53 / AIK Stockholm 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.870 / def 1.349 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.998 / def 1.329 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.39
AIK Stockholm xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs AIK Stockholm?
GIF Sundsvall 0 - 2 AIK Stockholm.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs AIK Stockholm part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 41% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and AIK Stockholm?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and AIK Stockholm in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. AIK Stockholm away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates GIF Sundsvall's attack at 0.87x the league average against AIK Stockholm's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AIK Stockholm's attack (1.00x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
41%
2.45
25%
4.06
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.92
1.39
AIK Stockholm xG
2.45
41%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
10%
9.85
7%
13.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.39 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
AIK Stockholm
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
GIF Sundsvall
0
Draws
2
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and AIK Stockholm?
From 2 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, AIK Stockholm have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2022, when AIK Stockholm 4-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
AIK Stockholm cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat GIF Sundsvall 0-2 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.53 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.39 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.87 / defence 1.35 against AIK Stockholm attack 1.00 / defence 1.33, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 41% | Draw 25% | AIK Stockholm 35%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual AIK Stockholm win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.