AIK Stockholm 1-0 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees IFK Goteborg travel to Friends Arena to take on AIK Stockholm. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 May 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AIK Stockholm — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
AIK Stockholm's home record at Friends Arena: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Friends Arena. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — AIK Stockholm are significantly better at Friends Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Goteborg have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — AIK Stockholm at 1.80 PPG versus IFK Goteborg's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for AIK Stockholm, 0 for IFK Goteborg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2021, ended 3–1 with AIK Stockholm winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AIK Stockholm trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
IFK Goteborg trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 38% versus IFK Goteborg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 35% | IFK Goteborg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 0.98 xG and IFK Goteborg 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.010 / defence 0.675 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.049 / defence 0.749. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.040. IFK Goteborg's defence strength of 0.749 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. AIK Stockholm's defence rating of 0.675 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 AIK Stockholm games / 36 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 40% | Draw 33% | IFK Goteborg 26%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | IFK Goteborg 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — IFK Goteborg's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.72 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AIK Stockholm 40% | IFK Goteborg 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 40% | Draw 33% | IFK Goteborg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG AIK Stockholm 0.98 / IFK Goteborg 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.010 / def 0.675 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.049 / def 0.749 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
0.74
IFK Goteborg xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg?
AIK Stockholm 1 - 0 IFK Goteborg.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg part of?
AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 40% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both AIK Stockholm and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and IFK Goteborg?
Record (1 meetings): AIK Stockholm 1W | Draws 0 | IFK Goteborg 0W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and IFK Goteborg in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AIK Stockholm's attack rating (1.01) and IFK Goteborg's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Goteborg's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
40%
2.50
33%
2.99
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
1.72
0.74
IFK Goteborg xG
2.50
40%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.07
67%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
10%
10.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.0 | 13.2 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 13.0 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.6%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 0.74 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 1.72.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AIK Stockholm come into this having played 60 games, going 28W 14D 18L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, IFK Goteborg sit at 1.25 PPG from 60 outings (18W 21D 21L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.63 PPG, IFK Goteborg on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
AIK Stockholm's home form reads 19W 4D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.03 PPG return.
Away from home, IFK Goteborg have taken 1.33 points per game from 30 outings (9W 13D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.28 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 28W 14D 18L in their last 60 games (1.63 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 18W 21D 21L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or IFK Goteborg away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 2.03 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.33 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AIK Stockholm and IFK Goteborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2024, when AIK Stockholm won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting IFK Goteborg specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
AIK Stockholm
2
Draws
2
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and IFK Goteborg?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 6, IFK Goteborg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when IFK Goteborg 1-2 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and IFK Goteborg?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 33%, IFK Goteborg 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (AIK Stockholm) and 50% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; IFK Goteborg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play IFK Goteborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 57% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 50% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out IFK Goteborg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat IFK Goteborg 1-0 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 0.98 xG and IFK Goteborg 0.74 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.01 / defence 0.68 against IFK Goteborg attack 1.05 / defence 0.75, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 40% | Draw 33% | IFK Goteborg 26%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 35%, IFK Goteborg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.63 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.