Gais 3-0 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to Gais versus Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Gais (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gamla Ullevi, Gais have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gamla Ullevi. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Gais are significantly better at Gamla Ullevi than their overall form suggests.
Djurgardens IF have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Gais against 1.70 for Djurgardens IF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gais lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Djurgardens IF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Gais — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Djurgardens IF — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 42% versus Djurgardens IF 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 58% | Djurgardens IF 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.02 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.801 / defence 0.755 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.126 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.353. Gais's defence rating of 0.755 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 23 Gais games / 52 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 32% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 39%. Fair-value odds: Gais 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Djurgardens IF 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Gais 40% | Djurgardens IF 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 32% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Gais 1.02 / Djurgardens IF 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.801 / def 0.755 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.126 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Djurgardens IF xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Gais vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Djurgardens IF?
Gais 3 - 0 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Gais vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Gais vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 32% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Gais and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Djurgardens IF?
Record (1 meetings): Gais 0W | Draws 0 | Djurgardens IF 1W.
What form are Gais and Djurgardens IF in?
Gais (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gais's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (1.13x) against Gais's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 23/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
32%
3.11
29%
3.42
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Gais xG
Total xG
2.18
1.15
Djurgardens IF xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
14%
7.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Gais and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Gais and 1.15 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gais's recent record stands at 28W 9D 15L from 52 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF, meanwhile, have gone 28W 8D 16L across 52 games — 1.77 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.79 PPG for Gais against 1.77 for Djurgardens IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gais have managed 15W 5D 6L from 26 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Djurgardens IF's away record stands at 13W 3D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gais are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.48 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Gais have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Djurgardens IF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 28W 9D 15L in their last 52 games (1.79 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 28W 8D 16L in their last 52 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Gais's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.92 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Gais or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 14 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Djurgardens IF go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gais won 3-0 on 22 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gais have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Gais
1
Draws
3
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Djurgardens IF?
From 6 meetings on record, Gais have won 2, Djurgardens IF have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2026, when Djurgardens IF 2-0 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 42%, Djurgardens IF 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gais) and 58% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Gais keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 31%; Gais have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Gais's recent matches and 54% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gais vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gais's recent games and 58% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gais run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Djurgardens IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Djurgardens IF 3-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.02 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.15 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Gais beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Djurgardens IF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.80 / defence 0.76 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.13 / defence 0.83, drawn from 23/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 32% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 39%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Gais win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 58%, Djurgardens IF 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gais 1.79 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gais win broke the near-deadlock. Gais (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.