Djurgardens IF 2-1 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 28 as Djurgardens IF welcome Vasteras SK FK to Tele2 Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 28 October 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Djurgardens IF — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tele2 Arena, Djurgardens IF have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Djurgardens IF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Djurgardens IF at 1.20 PPG versus Vasteras SK FK's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Djurgardens IF have won 1, Vasteras SK FK 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 2–0 with Djurgardens IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Vasteras SK FK in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 46% versus Vasteras SK FK 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 46% | Vasteras SK FK 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.46 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 0.881 / defence 0.907 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.701 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.249. Data: 57 Djurgardens IF games / 27 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 52% | Draw 28% | Vasteras SK FK 20%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Vasteras SK FK 5.00. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 40% | Vasteras SK FK 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 28 Oct 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 52% | Draw 28% | Vasteras SK FK 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.46 / Vasteras SK FK 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 0.881 / def 0.907 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.701 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Vasteras SK FK xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 28 October 2024 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Djurgardens IF 2 - 1 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 52% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (1 meetings): Djurgardens IF 1W | Draws 0 | Vasteras SK FK 0W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Vasteras SK FK in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (0.88) and Vasteras SK FK's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
52%
1.92
28%
3.55
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.25
0.79
Vasteras SK FK xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
5%
21.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.2 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.79 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Djurgardens IF have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 29W 10D 18L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasteras SK FK's form line: 24W 11D 22L from 57 games, 1.46 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.70 PPG, Vasteras SK FK on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Djurgardens IF have posted 1.93 PPG from 28 outings (16W 6D 6L).
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 11W 4D 13L from 28 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.26 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 29W 10D 18L in their last 57 games (1.70 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 24W 11D 22L in their last 57 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.93 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Djurgardens IF and Vasteras SK FK runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Djurgardens IF
0
Draws
0
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Vasteras SK FK?
From 2 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 2, Vasteras SK FK have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2024, when Djurgardens IF 2-1 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Vasteras SK FK?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 39%, Vasteras SK FK 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Djurgardens IF) and 54% (Vasteras SK FK).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Vasteras SK FK in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 46% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 54% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out Vasteras SK FK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Vasteras SK FK 2-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.46 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.79 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 0.88 / defence 0.91 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.70 / defence 1.17, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 52% | Draw 28% | Vasteras SK FK 20%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 46%, Vasteras SK FK 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.70 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.