Djurgardens IF 2-0 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sirius at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Djurgardens IF vs Sirius encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sirius make the trip to Tele2 Arena to face Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 April 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Djurgardens IF (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Djurgardens IF's home record at Tele2 Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena.
Sirius have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sirius have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sirius are 0.60 PPG clear of Djurgardens IF in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (2.20 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Djurgardens IF lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 2–4 with Sirius winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Djurgardens IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Sirius goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 42% versus Sirius 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 52% | Sirius 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.59 xG and Sirius 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.191 / defence 1.173 | Sirius attack 1.099 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.405. Data: 32 Djurgardens IF games / 32 Sirius games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 34% | Draw 22% | Sirius 43%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.94 | Draw 4.55 | Sirius 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sirius if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Djurgardens IF 40% | Sirius 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 34% | Draw 22% | Sirius 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.59 / Sirius 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.191 / def 1.173 | Sirius attack 1.099 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: Sirius (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Sirius xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Sirius kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Sirius kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Djurgardens IF 2 - 0 Sirius.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Sirius part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 34% chance of winning, Sirius a 43% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Sirius?
Record (5 meetings): Djurgardens IF 2W | Draws 1 | Sirius 2W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Sirius in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Sirius (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (1.19) and Sirius's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (1.10x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
34%
2.92
22%
4.44
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
3.40
1.81
Sirius xG
2.92
34%
Home win
4.44
22%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
16%
6.11
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
6%
17.84
9%
11.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.81 for Sirius, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 60 games, going 32W 11D 17L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Sirius sit at 1.28 PPG from 60 outings (21W 14D 25L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Sirius — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 21W 3D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — Djurgardens IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sirius have taken 1.17 points per game from 30 outings (8W 11D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.37 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 32W 11D 17L in their last 60 games (1.78 PPG), while Sirius have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Sirius away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.20 PPG; Sirius away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Sirius in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 18 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 8-2 on 29 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Djurgardens IF
1
Draws
3
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 6, Sirius have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2026, when Djurgardens IF 2-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Sirius?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 40%, Sirius 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Djurgardens IF) and 53% (Sirius). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sirius in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 47% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 53% of Sirius's.
Do Djurgardens IF and Sirius tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sirius in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Djurgardens IF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sirius.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Sirius 2-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.59 xG and Sirius 1.81 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sirius landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.19 / defence 1.17 against Sirius attack 1.10 / defence 0.98, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 34% | Draw 22% | Sirius 43%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Djurgardens IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 52%, Sirius 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.28. That form edge translated into the three points. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.