Hammarby FF 3-0 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 3 as Hammarby FF welcome IF Elfsborg to Tele2 Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 15 April 2024 at 18:10 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hammarby FF have posted 5W 4D 1L at Tele2 Arena — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
IF Elfsborg away from home this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Hammarby FF) versus 1.90 (IF Elfsborg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Hammarby FF have won 2, IF Elfsborg 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Hammarby FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hammarby FF trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
IF Elfsborg trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 48% versus IF Elfsborg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 55% | IF Elfsborg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.40 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.215 / defence 0.980 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.946 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.438. Data: 32 Hammarby FF games / 32 IF Elfsborg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 39% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 36%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | IF Elfsborg 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 90% | IF Elfsborg 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 15 Apr 2024, 18:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 39% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Hammarby FF 1.40 / IF Elfsborg 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.215 / def 0.980 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.946 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.33
IF Elfsborg xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 18:10 on Monday 15 April 2024 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Hammarby FF 3 - 0 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 39% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg?
Record (5 meetings): Hammarby FF 2W | Draws 1 | IF Elfsborg 2W.
What form are Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
39%
2.58
26%
3.90
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.73
1.33
IF Elfsborg xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
10%
9.79
9%
11.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.33 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Hammarby FF have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 27W 19D 14L record — D-D-D-D-D across the most recent five.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 33W 14D 13L from 60 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.67 PPG, IF Elfsborg on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hammarby FF have posted 2.03 PPG from 30 outings (17W 10D 3L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 15W 6D 9L from 30 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.90 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 27W 19D 14L in their last 60 games (1.67 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 33W 14D 13L in their last 60 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.03 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hammarby FF have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2022, when Hammarby FF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
2
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 6, IF Elfsborg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 63%, IF Elfsborg 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Hammarby FF and 50% for IF Elfsborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 33%; IF Elfsborg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 43% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Hammarby FF's matches and 50% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of IF Elfsborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat IF Elfsborg 3-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.40 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.33 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IF Elfsborg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.22 / defence 0.98 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.95 / defence 0.82, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 39% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 36%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 55%, IF Elfsborg 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.67 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.