Djurgardens IF 1-1 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping meet at 3Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Monday 30 June 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Djurgardens IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Djurgardens IF at 3Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IFK Norrkoping (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Norrkoping have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Djurgardens IF, 1.10 for IFK Norrkoping — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Djurgardens IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, IFK Norrkoping in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across 8 previous meetings, Djurgardens IF are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 3–1 with Djurgardens IF winning.
The historical record gives Djurgardens IF a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Djurgardens IF — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
IFK Norrkoping — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 47% versus IFK Norrkoping 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 47% | IFK Norrkoping 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.15 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 0.815 / defence 0.911 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.187 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.313. Data: 42 Djurgardens IF games / 42 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 30% | Draw 26% | IFK Norrkoping 43%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | IFK Norrkoping 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Norrkoping are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 60% | IFK Norrkoping 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Monday 30 Jun 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 30% | Draw 26% | IFK Norrkoping 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.15 / IFK Norrkoping 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 0.815 / def 0.911 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.187 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.42
IFK Norrkoping xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 30 June 2025 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Djurgardens IF 1 - 1 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 30% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (8 meetings): Djurgardens IF 6W | Draws 2 | IFK Norrkoping 0W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Djurgardens IF's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against IFK Norrkoping's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — IFK Norrkoping's attack (1.19x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
30%
3.29
26%
3.80
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.57
1.42
IFK Norrkoping xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
7%
13.61
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.9 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.42 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Djurgardens IF have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 31W 10D 19L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
IFK Norrkoping's form line: 21W 12D 27L from 60 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Djurgardens IF are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IFK Norrkoping.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Djurgardens IF have posted 2.00 PPG from 30 outings (18W 6D 6L).
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 8W 8D 14L from 30 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.35 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping in 63%.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 31W 10D 19L in their last 60 games (1.72 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 21W 12D 27L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.00 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or IFK Norrkoping been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, IFK Norrkoping in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 0-4 on 31 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Djurgardens IF
3
Draws
0
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 7, IFK Norrkoping have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when IFK Norrkoping 0-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 43%, IFK Norrkoping 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Djurgardens IF) and 73% (IFK Norrkoping). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play IFK Norrkoping?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Djurgardens IF's games and 77% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 73% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping finished level at 1-1 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.15 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.42 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 0.81 / defence 0.91 against IFK Norrkoping attack 1.19 / defence 1.05, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 30% | Draw 26% | IFK Norrkoping 43%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 47%, IFK Norrkoping 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.