Djurgardens IF 0-4 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IF Elfsborg make the trip to Tele2 Arena to face Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 July 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Djurgardens IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 8W 1D 1L at Tele2 Arena — 2.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
IF Elfsborg have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg away from home this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 away games — 2.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.30 PPG for Djurgardens IF against 2.60 for IF Elfsborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Djurgardens IF 1W, IF Elfsborg 1W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jun 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Djurgardens IF — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
IF Elfsborg — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 40% versus IF Elfsborg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 51% | IF Elfsborg 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.42 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.198 / defence 0.602 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.346 / defence 0.804. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.279. IF Elfsborg have an above-average attack strength of 1.346 — the away xG of 1.04 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Djurgardens IF's defence rating of 0.602 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Djurgardens IF games / 45 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 44% | Draw 30% | IF Elfsborg 26%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | IF Elfsborg 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Djurgardens IF 30% | IF Elfsborg 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 44% | Draw 30% | IF Elfsborg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.42 / IF Elfsborg 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.198 / def 0.602 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.346 / def 0.804 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.04
IF Elfsborg xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 July 2023 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Djurgardens IF 0 - 4 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 44% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg?
Record (4 meetings): Djurgardens IF 1W | Draws 2 | IF Elfsborg 1W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (1.20) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (1.35x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (0.60x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
44%
2.27
30%
3.28
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.46
1.04
IF Elfsborg xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
6%
16.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.04 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 45 outings, Djurgardens IF have picked up 1.87 PPG on a 25W 9D 11L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 24W 13D 8L from 45 games, 1.89 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.87 PPG for Djurgardens IF against 1.89 for IF Elfsborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Djurgardens IF have posted 2.41 PPG from 22 outings (17W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.87 PPG overall — Djurgardens IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 11W 6D 5L from 22 away games — 1.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 2.00 scored and 1.02 conceded. IF Elfsborg's attacking output running into Djurgardens IF's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 25W 9D 11L in their last 45 games (1.87 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 24W 13D 8L in their last 45 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.41 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 0-4 on 22 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
4
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 4, IF Elfsborg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when IF Elfsborg 2-1 Djurgardens IF.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 32%, IF Elfsborg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Djurgardens IF) and 50% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 50% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 50% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IF Elfsborg run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Djurgardens IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Djurgardens IF 0-4 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.42 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.04 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Djurgardens IF fell 1.4 short of their projected output. IF Elfsborg outscored their 1.04 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.20 / defence 0.60 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.35 / defence 0.80, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 44% | Draw 30% | IF Elfsborg 26%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual IF Elfsborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 51%, IF Elfsborg 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.87 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.