AIK Stockholm 0-0 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Malmo FF at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Malmo FF make the trip to Friends Arena to face AIK Stockholm in Allsvenskan (matchday 16). The match kicks off on Sunday 23 July 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
AIK Stockholm (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AIK Stockholm's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Malmo FF's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Malmo FF's form when playing away from home: 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
On a straight form reading, Malmo FF are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for AIK Stockholm, 2 for Malmo FF and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 May 2023, ended AIK Stockholm 1–3 Malmo FF — a Malmo FF win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
AIK Stockholm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Malmo FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 51% versus Malmo FF 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 49% | Malmo FF 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.24 xG and Malmo FF 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.895 / defence 1.047 | Malmo FF attack 1.174 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.289. Data: built from AIK Stockholm's last 45 games and Malmo FF's last 45.
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 29% | Draw 27% | Malmo FF 44%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 3.46 | Draw 3.74 | Malmo FF 2.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Malmo FF as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Malmo FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (AIK Stockholm's last 10 home games and Malmo FF's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: AIK Stockholm 50% (last 10 home games) | Malmo FF 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 16 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 July 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 29% | Draw 27% | Malmo FF 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG AIK Stockholm 1.24 / Malmo FF 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.895 / def 1.047 | Malmo FF attack 1.174 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Malmo FF xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF FAQs
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 23 July 2023 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF?
AIK Stockholm 0 - 0 Malmo FF.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 16) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 29% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AIK Stockholm's attack at 0.90x the league average against Malmo FF's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Malmo FF's attack (1.17x) against AIK Stockholm's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from AIK Stockholm's last 45 games and Malmo FF's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
29%
3.46
27%
3.74
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.82
1.58
Malmo FF xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
21%
4.87
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
6%
16.88
13%
7.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.4 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.58 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AIK Stockholm come into this having played 45 games, going 17W 12D 16L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Malmo FF sit at 1.78 PPG from 45 outings (24W 8D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for AIK Stockholm against 1.78 for Malmo FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
AIK Stockholm's home form reads 9W 7D 6L across their last 22 home games, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Malmo FF have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 22 away games (10W 3D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 1.76 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
AIK Stockholm (Home) vs Malmo FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF Form FAQs
What form are AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 17W 12D 16L in their last 45 games (1.40 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 24W 8D 13L in their last 45 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Malmo FF away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.55 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.50 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 7 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Malmo FF won Malmo FF 5-0 AIK Stockholm on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AIK Stockholm have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Malmo FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
AIK Stockholm
5
Draws
4
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AIK Stockholm have won 1, Malmo FF have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 September 2026: Malmo FF 0-0 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 41%, Malmo FF 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (AIK Stockholm) and 54% (Malmo FF).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Malmo FF in 36%; Malmo FF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 46% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 54% of Malmo FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 73% of Malmo FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at AIK Stockholm's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF finished level at 0-0 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.24 xG and Malmo FF 1.58 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. AIK Stockholm fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Malmo FF landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.90 / defence 1.05 against Malmo FF attack 1.17 / defence 0.95, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 29% | Draw 27% | Malmo FF 44%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 49%, Malmo FF 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Malmo FF's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.40 PPG, Malmo FF 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.