Djurgardens IF 1-1 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 46%, yet the head-to-head data favours Hammarby FF — this Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF host Hammarby FF at 3Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 5). Kick-off is Sunday 26 April 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Djurgardens IF stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Djurgardens IF at home: 5W 5D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Hammarby FF have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Hammarby FF have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Djurgardens IF at 2.10 PPG versus Hammarby FF's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Djurgardens IF's last 10 home games and Hammarby FF's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Hammarby FF have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Djurgardens IF.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2025, ended Djurgardens IF 3–3 Hammarby FF — a draw.
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 48% versus Hammarby FF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 42% | Hammarby FF 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.64 xG and Hammarby FF 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.087 / defence 1.059 | Hammarby FF attack 0.894 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.345. Data: built from Djurgardens IF's last 34 games and Hammarby FF's last 34.
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 46% | Draw 24% | Hammarby FF 30%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.18 | Draw 4.08 | Hammarby FF 3.37. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Djurgardens IF's last 10 home games and Hammarby FF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Djurgardens IF 70% (last 10 home games) | Hammarby FF 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 5 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 46% | Draw 24% | Hammarby FF 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Djurgardens IF 1.64 / Hammarby FF 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.087 / def 1.059 | Hammarby FF attack 0.894 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Hammarby FF xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF FAQs
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Djurgardens IF 1 - 1 Hammarby FF.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 5) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 46% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (1.09) and Hammarby FF's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Djurgardens IF's last 34 games and Hammarby FF's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
46%
2.18
24%
4.08
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.91
1.27
Hammarby FF xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
19%
5.15
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
6%
17.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.3 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.27 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Djurgardens IF have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 29W 15D 16L record — D-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Hammarby FF's form line: 35W 11D 14L from 60 games, 1.93 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.70 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Djurgardens IF have posted 1.77 PPG from their last 30 home games (14W 11D 5L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 14W 6D 10L from their last 30 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.80 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
Hammarby FF
Current Season
Djurgardens IF (Home) vs Hammarby FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
Hammarby FF
Current Season
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF Form FAQs
What form are Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 29W 15D 16L in their last 60 games (1.70 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 35W 11D 14L in their last 60 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.77 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from July 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Jun 2024, when Hammarby FF won Djurgardens IF 0-3 Hammarby FF.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Djurgardens IF
4
Draws
4
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Djurgardens IF have won 2, Hammarby FF have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Hammarby FF 0-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 53%, Hammarby FF 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Djurgardens IF) and 53% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hammarby FF in 40%; Hammarby FF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 43% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 53% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 57% of Hammarby FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at 3Arena, Regular Season - 5, as Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.64 xG and Hammarby FF 1.27 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.09 / defence 1.06 against Hammarby FF attack 0.89 / defence 0.98, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 46% | Draw 24% | Hammarby FF 30%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 42%, Hammarby FF 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.70 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.