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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Djurgardens IF run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Degerfors IF.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Djurgardens IF beat Degerfors IF 5-1 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.31 xG and Degerfors IF 1.26 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Djurgardens IF beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 0.82 / defence 0.91 against Degerfors IF attack 1.11 / defence 1.22, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 37% | Draw 28% | Degerfors IF 35%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 40%, Degerfors IF 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Djurgardens IF's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Degerfors IF's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.60 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights