Degerfors IF 1-1 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sirius (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Degerfors IF face Sirius.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Degerfors IF and Sirius meet at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Degerfors IF (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Degerfors IF haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Degerfors IF have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stora Valla — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sirius have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sirius's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sirius are 0.70 PPG clear of Degerfors IF in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (1.30 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sirius in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Sirius, who have claimed 5 wins from 6 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 2–3 with Sirius winning.
It is worth noting that Sirius have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sirius — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 60% versus Sirius 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 63% | Sirius 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.11 xG and Sirius 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.676 / defence 0.973 | Sirius attack 1.212 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.251. Degerfors IF's attack strength of 0.676 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sirius have an above-average attack strength of 1.212 — the away xG of 1.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 6 Degerfors IF games / 36 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 29% | Draw 26% | Sirius 45%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Sirius 2.22. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sirius are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sirius if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 60% | Sirius 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 29% | Draw 26% | Sirius 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Degerfors IF 1.11 / Sirius 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.676 / def 0.973 | Sirius attack 1.212 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Sirius (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Sirius xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Sirius kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Sirius kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Sirius?
Degerfors IF 1 - 1 Sirius.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Sirius part of?
Degerfors IF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 29% chance of winning, Sirius a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Degerfors IF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Sirius?
Record (6 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 1 | Sirius 5W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Sirius in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Sirius (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 0.68x the league average against Sirius's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (1.21x) against Degerfors IF's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
29%
3.50
26%
3.86
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.59
1.48
Sirius xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
7%
15.30
15%
6.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.48 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 7W 5D 18L from 30 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. Degerfors IF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 12W 5D 13L across 30 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sirius by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 5W 2D 8L from 15 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sirius's away record stands at 6W 2D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.57 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
Sirius
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 7W 5D 18L in their last 30 games (0.87 PPG), while Sirius have gone 12W 5D 13L in their last 30 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Sirius away?
Sirius's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.13 PPG; Sirius away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 14 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Sirius have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 0-3 on 15 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
7
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 1, Sirius have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2026, when Sirius 2-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Sirius?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 67%, Sirius 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Degerfors IF and 53% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sirius in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Degerfors IF's games and 60% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Degerfors IF's matches and 53% of Sirius's.
Do Degerfors IF and Sirius tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sirius in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF and Sirius share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 7, as Degerfors IF and Sirius drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.11 xG and Sirius 1.48 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.68 / defence 0.97 against Sirius attack 1.21 / defence 1.16, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 29% | Draw 26% | Sirius 45%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 63%, Sirius 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Sirius's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sirius arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.