🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out Degerfors IF 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mjallby AIF beat Degerfors IF 0-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 0.51 xG and Mjallby AIF 2.03 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mjallby AIF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.49 / defence 1.13 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.31 / defence 0.77, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 8% | Draw 19% | Mjallby AIF 73%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 52%, Mjallby AIF 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Degerfors IF's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Mjallby AIF's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.37. That form edge translated into the three points. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights