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Poisson model favours Mjallby AIF (73%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Degerfors IF face Mjallby AIF.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF meet at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stora Valla, Degerfors IF have gone 0W 3D 7L this season (10 games, 0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Mjallby AIF have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Mjallby AIF have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Mjallby AIF arrive in superior form — a 2.30 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

Across the last 7 meetings, Mjallby AIF have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Degerfors IF's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 1–4 with Mjallby AIF winning.

It is worth noting that Mjallby AIF have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Data

Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Degerfors IF 58% and Mjallby AIF 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 52% | Mjallby AIF 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 0.51 xG and Mjallby AIF 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.489 / defence 1.134 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.311 / defence 0.772. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.368. Degerfors IF's attack strength of 0.489 is below the league average — the 0.51 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Mjallby AIF's defence strength of 0.772 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Mjallby AIF have an above-average attack strength of 1.311 — the away xG of 2.03 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 Degerfors IF games / 52 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 8% | Draw 19% | Mjallby AIF 73%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 12.50 | Draw 5.26 | Mjallby AIF 1.37. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (73%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Degerfors IF's lower xG of 0.51 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Degerfors IF 40% | Mjallby AIF 70%.

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