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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as IF Elfsborg defy the odds to beat Degerfors IF 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IF Elfsborg beat Degerfors IF 0-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.24 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.15 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Degerfors IF fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.85 / defence 0.98 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.00 / defence 1.10, drawn from 3/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 38% | Draw 28% | IF Elfsborg 34%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual IF Elfsborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 63%, IF Elfsborg 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights